Dating the business cycle in britain

Nominal GDP increased morerapidly than suggested by Lindert and Williamson during the eighteenth century, andmore slowly than suggested by Deane and Cole during the first half of the nineteenthcentury, as a result of differences in the price indices.

Committee members do this by looking at real GDP and other indicators including real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.Most major equity indexes around the world endured declines of over 50% in the 18-month period of the Great Recession, which was the worst global contraction since the 1930s Depression.Global equities also underwent a significant correction in the 2001 recession, with the Nasdaq Composite among the worst-hit: the index plunged by almost 80% from its 2001 peak to its 2002 low.The current expansion still trails the 1990s bull market by 18 months, a streak that would be bested in July 2019.The average length of expansion of the previous 13 episodes is just 59 months."Output cycle" is therefore a better description of what is measured.The business or output cycle should not be confused with market cycles, measured using broad stock market indices; or the debt cycle, referring to the rise and fall in household and government debt.The current cycle will soon be the second longest of modern times.This article gives a historical examination of economic expansions to help readers frame their own view of the length of this current business cycle.After World War II, expansions were mostly associated with population growth, urban sprawl and the advent of consumerism.By the 1970s, growth came more from debt injections from consumer credit cards, mortgages, commercial and industrial loans (as opposed to equity funding), followed by the dotcom speculation, and then more mortgage debt.


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